Explain the difference between theoretical and experimental probability. Provide an example of each.

Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen based on math, like a 50% chance of heads when flipping a fair coin. Experimental probability is what actually happens when we conduct trials, which might be slightly different due to randomness, but approaches theoretical probability with more trials.

If you flip a fair coin 10 times and get 7 heads and 3 tails, what is the experimental probability of flipping heads? How does this compare to the theoretical probability?

The experimental probability is 7/10 or 70%. The theoretical probability is 1/2 or 50%. The experimental probability is higher than the theoretical probability in this case.

Why does increasing the number of trials in an experiment generally lead to the experimental probability getting closer to the theoretical probability?

With more trials, the effect of random chance is reduced, and the overall results tend to even out and approach the expected theoretical probabilities.

Describe a situation where the experimental probability might be significantly different from the theoretical probability, even with a large number of trials. What could cause this?

If the device used in the experiment is not fair (e.g., a weighted die), the experimental probability will consistently differ from the theoretical probability, even with many trials.

Experimental Vs. Theoretical Probability Lesson Plan for Grade 12th Grade

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Learning Objective

I can compare and contrast experimental and theoretical probability and explain how sample size impacts experimental probability.

1
The probability of an event tells us how likely that event is to happen; it can be written as a fraction, decimal, or percentage.
2
A probability of zero means an event cannot happen, while a probability of one means an event is certain to happen.
3
To calculate probability, create a fraction with the number of desired outcomes as the numerator and the total number of possible outcomes as the denominator.

Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability

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Learning Objective

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Practice Questions

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